Exbookie Afl Picks Week 3

[ACE-ACE]

RECORD 5-2 +$1,860.00......START LAST WEEK




THIS WEEK I'AM DOING MY LINE ONLY WITH THE OVER AND UNDER ON EACH GAME....I DID IT ON THE GAME IT SELF BUT I NEED AT LESS ONE MORE WEEK OF DATA!!!!

THE LINE...........................VS MY LINE

ORL 96............................................101 A VALUE OF 5 O

LA 99.............................................92 A VALUE OF 7 U

NY 104...........................................99 A VALUE OF 5 U

GEO 92...........................................93

DAL 101 1/2....................................103

PHI 95 1/2.....................................97

CHI 101 1/2...................................99

SJ 106.........................................93 A VALUE OF 13 U

"MY LINE MEAN HOW I SEE THE LINE AS"

WITH THAT IN MIND....

THE BEST PICK OF THE WEEK IN THE OVER AND UNDER IS

SJ UNDER 106....SORRY AFL GURU!!!!

THE LAST 8 GAME PLAY SAN JOSE UNDER 5 TIMES 62%
IN THE LAST 2 WEEKS THERE HAS BEEN 5 GAME WITH A LINE OF 100 OR MORE........ITS 5-0 SO FAR THIS YEAR!!!!
MY STAT ARE NOT BASE ON THAT....BUT I THINK THE SCORE WILL BE IN THE LOW 90'S

MY BET IS S.J UNDER 106 FOR $800.00

NEXT

AUSTIN VS LA

IN AUSTIN LAST 8 GAME THEY HAVE AVG WITH BOTH TEAMS

87 A GAME VS LA 96 BEING THAT LA IS ON THE ROAD

99 IS TO HIGH A VALUE OF 7 POINT OR YOU CAN SAID A TD

MY BET IS LA UNDER 99...FOR $300.00

I PASS ON THE OVER AND UNDER ON N.Y. GAME....TO CLOSE TO CALL

NEXT GAME

TB VS ORL.....

A VALUE OF +5 ON TAKING THE OVER HERE....THIS IS A FLA GAME....YES T.B. IS NOT AT HOME BUT IT WILL NOT MATTER
IT SHOULD BE A HIGH SCORING GAME

TB ALWAY SCORE A LOT OF POINTS

TOTAL ON THERE LAST 7 GAMES
107
99
108
116
110
118
121
AVG 111 POINTS

PLUS GIVE ME THE 4 POINTS TB HAS MY PLAY UNTILL THEY LOSE A GAME....

TOTAL LESS THAN 99 IS OVER 47- UNDER 33 THAT 58%


MY BETS ARE TB +4 FOR $600.00

AND .......TB OVER 96 FOR $300.00



MORE TO COME

 

[degenerategambler]

7pts of spread between AFLG's pick of over 99 and your pick of under 106 on the SJ total. You both could be easily correct on that one.

 

[ACE-ACE]

7pts of spread between AFLG's pick of over 99 and your pick of under 106 on the SJ total. You both could be easily correct on that one.

THAT WOULD BE NICE:drink:

 

[ACE-ACE]

MY 1ST TEASER OF THE AFL....

STILL HOT ON TB....WITH NO1 RATED QB 74% COMP AND 15 TD IN 2 GAME...ADD LAWRENCE NO 5 RATED RECEIVER 217YDS 3 TD
AND WHAT DO YOU HAVE MORE MONEY ON TB....

PHI VS NASH....PHI IS ONLY -10 I SAW IT AT -15 A VALUE OF +5....ADD A SEVEN POINT TEASER AND THE VALUE GOES UP TO +12...
PUT THAT TEAM WITH TB +11 MORE VALUE...AND YOU GOT A GREAT TEASER!!!


MY BET IS PHI-3 AND TB +11 FOR $500.00



MORE TO COME

ACE

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey Ace--

Here's to a 3 point Preds victory and a 102 point San Jose game, right?

 

[ACE-ACE]

RECAP BETS....

TB +4.....................................$600.00

TB OVER 96............................$300.00

LA UNDER 99..........................$300.00

SJ UNDER 106.........................$800.00

TEASER 7 POINTS
PHI-3
TB+11....................................$500.00


MY ALL YOUR BETS COME IN

ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hey Ace--

Here's to a 3 point Preds victory and a 102 point San Jose game, right?

WE DO SEE THE GAME "DIFF" THIS WEEK.....THERE ROOM FOR BOTH OF US TO WIN.....

DONT YOU THINK THE LINE IS LOW ON PHI AT -10??

 

[AFLGuru]

Ace--

I'll say a couple things about your thread and your most recent post on my thread.

First, on the Tampa-Orlando game: Having been an avid follower of this series, the home team is at a SERIOUS advantage. But before that, it's worth mentioning how good these two teams are. Tampa's won 8 straight regular season games. Orlando's won 9 out of 10, with that one loss being vs. Tampa. That being said, that game was in Orlando last year. Orlando won 5 out of the previous 6 home matches, including twice in the playoffs. Though the road team in this series has a massive ATS advantage (7-3 since 2000), a game at a pick 'em is a gift. All of that being said, you know this is going to be a hotly contested game that comes down to some sort of 4th quarter magic. This Orlando team looks a bit different than normal. This team looks SO MUCH like the team in '93 that ran the table until the Arena Bowl against Arizona when they lost on a heartbreaking dropped past in the end zone as time expired... But Cory Fleming looks now like Barry Wagner did in the past. The defense gets a ton of pressure and forces a lot of errand passes that studly DBs pick off... So many comparisons. In a game like this, points are really so valueable over 3. Overtime wouldn't surprise me in this one, nor would a game that is decided by a FG at the end. I think taking Tampa and 4 points is a solid investment. Orlando remembers the sweep of last year and also wants to prove that they're for real, especially defensively. Tampa's going to force Orlando offensive mistakes, but the same will happen vice versa. I really don't think this game is going to get to 90 despite the fact that the games are typically high scoring (5 out of the last 6 were over).

In response to the Philly/Nashville game, I'm still not sold on Philly. I wasn't sold after the Austin game, and I'm really not sold after the Chicago game. I wasn't convinced they were a playoff team at the start of the year, and I'm still not convinced of that. Yes, I believe this number is a bit low in the game, but it also wouldn't surprise me if Leon Murray keeps the turnovers under 2 that Nashville might not win this game outright by playing ugly AFL ball. The way Nashville is going to try playing this year, games under 90 favor them. Games over 100 and they're at a big disadvantage. I still like the core of this Nashville team better than that of the Philly team. Save Smith and Graziani (worth 3 wins easily though) it's still the same team that was real bad in '04. I believe that 10-6 is a massive triumph for this team and still might not get them in the playoffs considering the depth of the West. Nashville plays the same type of ball that Chicago does, except with a better... yes, I said better, defensive line. James Baron makes any line the best line in the AFL. Moyer and gang are great in Chicago, but when Baron is healthy, he's simply an unstoppable nose tackle and one of the greats in AFL history. I'd lay off of this game.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[ACE-ACE]

aflguru.....WHEN DID THEY CHANGE THE TIME RULE...THE START OF THIS YEAR?
IN THE LAST TWO YEAR WHAT DID THEY THAN....AND WHAT DO THEY DO NOW?

THANKS....THIS WILL HELP

ACE

 

[AFLGuru]

Ace:

The rule in 2002 and 2003 was that the game clock was to be running at any time in which the play clock was running except following timeouts and inside the 1 minute timing rules. If a team were to score with 3:00 left in the first quarter, it would take at least 10 seconds to set the ball up for the PAT, 15-20 seconds for the extra point, and then another 20 seconds or so would run on the kickoff. By the time the other offense would get on the field, they'd probably only have 2 plays before the end of the quarter. All that being said, the clock now stops after the PAT is kicked and the play is waived dead, and doesn't start again until the ball is touched on the kickoff. This rule change decreased scoring for most teams in 2002 and fewer teams in 2003... this is due to the fact that a lot of teams were literally getting up the signal from the ref, and kicking the ball a matter of a couple seconds later. When two teams play that quicker paced game, the rule change won't matter. But if your linemen are tired and you're leading the game, why not take a delay or two and run over a minute off the clock?

That's why the rules have changed for this current season. No longer does the clock run prior to kickoffs. (This rule was especially stupid for THE OPENING KICKOFF of the game... There'd be 14:15 left in the 1st quarter before the first offensive play)

Hope this helps.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[ACE-ACE]

RECAP BETS....

TB +4.....................................$600.00..LOST


TB OVER 96............................$300.00..WINNER


LA UNDER 99..........................$300.00..LOST


SJ UNDER 106.........................$800.00


TEASER 7 POINTS
PHI-3
TB+11....................................$500.00..LOST

ADDING
GEO UNDER 92 1/2.................$400.00

 

[Publius]

Where are you getting these AFL lines? My book usually doesn't realse the AFL lines till the day before the games and by the time I can bet it the totals and lines are always way off. Like the Under in the Geo game tonight is down to 90.5. Maybe it will go back up.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Where are you getting these AFL lines? My book usually doesn't realse the AFL lines till the day before the games and by the time I can bet it the totals and lines are always way off. Like the Under in the Geo game tonight is down to 90.5. Maybe it will go back up.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO BET AFL....YOU HAVE TO GET THE LINE EARLY FOR MORE VALUE!!!!...."PINNACLE" IS ONE PLACE....THE 1ST TWO WEEK IT CAME OUT ON MONDAY....THIS WEEK THE LINE WAS OUT ON WED!!!

ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

2ND HALF BET SJ UNDER 54 FOR $500.00

 

[ACE-ACE]

RECAP BETS....

TB +4.....................................$600.00..LOST


TB OVER 96............................$300.00..WINNER


LA UNDER 99..........................$300.00..LOST


SJ UNDER 106.........................$800.00..LOST


TEASER 7 POINTS
PHI-3
TB+11....................................$500.00..LOST

ADDING
GEO UNDER 92 1/2.................$400.00..LOST

2ND HALF SJ UNDER 54...........$500.00..WINNER

2-5 -$1920.00 FOR THE WEEK

TOTAL FOR YEAR.....7-7 -$60.00

'MY LINE" KICK IN NEXT WEEK!!!:drink:

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey let's hit 'em hard next week Ace. You're due for a massive week after this one. Rough week for us all, though I finished a shade up because of that Pinnacle 2nd half blunder.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[brewers7]

Yes, let's get them this week, gentlemen...ACE-ACE, I wasn't home all day SUN (sister's birthday party at my parent's house) and just saw your post...I'll get on that tonight...

Just a note though, those totals were 6-2 ATS this weekend (taking 100 or more Under and 99 or less Over), bringing this season to 17-6-1 ATS...

That's gotta turn at some point, though, like really soon...Can't stay THAT hot, can it??...

I'll post your numbers here in this thread later tonight when I get a chance...Might be midnight-ish...

 

[brewers7]

requested numbers...

If I understood your question correctly, here are the numbers for 2004 season:

Away Favorites -- 22-35 ATS

Home Favorites -- 45-55-1 ATS

DOGS covered 90 out of 167 for 57.3%...DOGS were WAY OVER 60%, and I mean WAY Over 60%, until just past the midway point of the season, when the FAVs started covering like crazy, as I remember a stretch where the Home FAVs covered about 11-of-12 and the Away FAVs about 5-of-6...

Points Mattered in 24 games last season...

Points Mattered in 8 games for the Away FAVs
Points Mattered in 16 games for the Home FAVs (1 of those a Push)

I think this is what you were looking for...

 

[ACE-ACE]

TANKS...I HAVE TO SAID ONE THING.....THE STAT IN THE AFL MAKE YOU :think:

ONE MORE....OUT OF THE 167 GAME LAST YEAR VS LINE
HOW MANY HOME WIN VS AWAY WIN=167
THIS YEAR SO FAR IT HOME 14 AWAY10

 

[brewers7]

requested numbers...

Had a typo in the last post, here is the correction:

Away Favorites -- 22-35 ATS (57 games)

Home Favorites -- 45-55-1 ATS (101 games)

One game was a Pick and the Away team won (1 game)

So, ignoring the Pick and the Push, DOGS covered 90 out of 157 for 57.3%...DOGS were WAY OVER 60%, and I mean WAY Over 60%, until just past the midway point of the season, when the FAVs started covering like crazy, as I remember a stretch where the Home FAVs covered about 11-of-12 and the Away FAVs about 5-of-6...

Points Mattered in 24 games last season...

Points Mattered in 8 games for the Away FAVs
Points Mattered in 16 games for the Home FAVs (1 of those a Push)

There were 159 total games in 2004...

The Away teams won 70 times...

The Home teams won 89 times...

Hope this clears things up...